Polysilicon Production in November Is Expected to Fall Short of 120,000 mt, with Prices Remaining Temporarily Stable [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM November 10 News:

Silicon Metal

Price

Last week, silicon metal spot prices were largely stable, with SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China at 9,400-9,500 yuan/mt and #441 silicon at 9,600-9,700 yuan/mt. Futures market prices fluctuated significantly; the silicon metal SI2612 contract rose to around 9,300 yuan/mt due to funding factors, and northern silicon metal enterprises showed increased willingness to sell based on the spot-futures price spread to arbitrage traders.

Production

In October 2025, domestic silicon metal production was 452,200 mt, up 31,400 mt or 7.5% MoM, but down 17,600 mt or 4% YoY. For November, supply variables are mainly in Sichuan and Yunnan, with national total supply expected to drop below 400,000 mt, a decrease of 12%.

Inventory

Social inventory: As of November 6, SMM statistics showed total silicon metal social inventory in major regions was 552,000 mt, down 6,000 mt WoW. This included 127,000 mt in general social warehouses, up 3,000 mt WoW, and 425,000 mt in delivery warehouses (including unregistered warrants and spot inventory), down 9,000 mt WoW. Some cargo moved from futures-related warehouses to general warehouses or other locations, with limited arrivals during the week, leading to an overall WoW decline in social inventory (excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.).

Polysilicon

Price

Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 49.4-55 yuan/kg, the N-type polysilicon price index was 52 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 50-51 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices were temporarily stable over the weekend. Recent frequent industry meetings suggest possible further module price adjustments, leading to gradually reduced transactions in the polysilicon upstream and downstream as participants adopt a wait-and-see approach.

Production

Domestic polysilicon production in November is expected to be close to 120,000 mt, a relatively large decrease MoM from October, due to numerous production halts in Sichuan and Yunnan.

Inventory

Recent polysilicon inventory changes were relatively small overall. Earlier market order signings lowered inventory for some manufacturers, but subsequent orders gradually decreased, raising the possibility of inventory buildup.

Module

Price

Last week, domestic module prices saw a slight increase attempt, but the mainstream transaction center remained unchanged. This week, some domestic enterprises plan to start raising prices, and dealers and end-users have already received price hike notices. The module sector largely agrees on the increases, but downstream acceptance is currently low. Short-term negotiations are expected, but the upward trend is basically set, with strong upward momentum for module prices. Current distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.669 yuan/W, 0.674 yuan/W, and 0.684 yuan/W, respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.664 yuan/W and 0.684 yuan/W, respectively.

Production

Module scheduled production in November is expected to decline, with some module enterprises having reduced operating rates last week. Module production this month is projected to decrease by nearly 2 GW.

Inventory

In terms of weekly inventory, some dealers entered the market for procurement last week, and finished product inventories held by module enterprises decreased slightly.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Currently, domestic inner-layer sand is priced at 58,000-63,000 yuan/mt, mid-layer sand at 25,000-30,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand at 17,000-21,000 yuan/mt. Domestic high-purity quartz sand prices remained stable last week. Recent negotiations on imported sand have made progress, with the initial round concluded; price discussions will enter the second stage. The price trend continues to decline, and domestic sand prices are expected to start falling.

Production

Last week, domestic high-purity quartz sand enterprises began appropriate production cuts, but supply pressure remains high.

Inventory

Quartz sand inventory levels increased slightly, while crucible enterprises have not yet started negotiations or purchases.

PV Glass

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is 19.5-20.5 yuan/m², with prices stable.

3.2mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass is 20.5-21.5 yuan/m², with prices stable.

2.0mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is 12.5-13.5 yuan/m². The transaction center has slightly shifted downward to below 13 yuan/m². Glass enterprises faced obstacles in holding prices firm, and enterprises with high inventory levels prioritized selling at lower prices in this round.

2.0mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass is 13.5-14.5 yuan/m², with the transaction center slightly shifting downward.

Production

Recently, more cold repair lines have been observed domestically, and domestic glass production in November declined compared to expectations.

Inventory

Glass inventory levels remained relatively stable last week, with top-tier enterprises starting to enter the market for purchases. However, overall glass inventory in November is still expected to maintain an upward trend.